The US Energy Information Administration is sounding an alarm that should make anyone who drives a car, heats a home, or trades commodities sit up straight. OECD oil inventories are on track to fall below 2.3 billion barrels, a level the world hasn’t seen since 2003.
The numbers tell a grim story
US commercial crude stockpiles dropped by 8.0 million barrels for the week ending May 29, 2026. That single-week draw left total inventories at 433.7 million barrels, sitting 3% below the five-year average.
The EIA anticipates an average inventory draw of 6.3 million barrels per day during the second quarter and 7.6 million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2026.
Meanwhile, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has been whittled down to approximately 365 million barrels, a level reminiscent of the 1980s. At 365 million barrels, the US government has limited room to repeat the massive SPR releases that helped cool prices in 2022.
