The US Energy Information Administration just delivered the kind of forecast that makes energy traders reach for the antacids. OECD oil inventories are on track to plunge below 2.3 billion barrels by December 2026, a level not seen since the agency started keeping records in 2003.
The culprit is a massive supply hole punched through the Middle East. An estimated 11 million barrels per day of production has been knocked offline by escalating conflict involving Iran and persistent shipping restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz.
The numbers paint a grim picture
The EIA projects global inventories will contract by 6.3 million barrels per day in Q2 2026 and an even steeper 7.6 million b/d in Q3.
US commercial crude stocks are already feeling the squeeze. In the week ending May 29, 2026, domestic inventories shed 8 million barrels, bringing the total down to 433.7 million barrels. That figure sits 3% below the five-year average.
