Iran has switched from projecting power via its proxy armed groups around the region to using its own firepower to protect them, analysts say.

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After weeks of warning that continuing Israeli attacks on Lebanon would jeopardise diplomacy, Iran launched its first direct strikes on Israel in two months overnight on Sunday, casting new doubts about the likelihood of a US-Iran peace deal.

While Israel and the US have sought to separate Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon from the wider US-Israeli war on Iran, Iran has consistently stated that it will not entertain a peace deal that does not extend to Lebanon as well.