Key Market Events for the Week of June 8–12, 2026

Rio Times Markets · The Week Ahead

Week Overview

The week’s anchor is the US May CPI on Wednesday — consensus +0.3% MoM / +4.2% YoY headline, +0.5% / +2.9% core. It is the last major inflation print the Fed sees before the June 16–17 FOMC, and the first to fully reflect the Iran-war energy pass-through that pushed April CPI to 3.8% YoY.

Thursday delivers the ECB decision — markets price a 25 basis-point hike to 2.40% (deposit to 2.25%), the first tightening of this cycle. Lagarde has already flagged that ECB inflation projections will be revised up. The BoC holds at 2.25% Wednesday but Macklem’s communication carries the same dilemma — hike against the oil shock or hold against trade weakness.

For Latin America, Brazil’s May IPCA Friday is the single most consequential print into the June 17 Copom. Consensus prices +0.50–0.60% MoM — the first full reading of the post-Hormuz gasoline pass-through. With Selic at 14.50% and Focus IPCA expectations climbing for a tenth consecutive week, an upside surprise pushes the DI curve to price a Copom pause.