Week Overview
US April PCE (Thursday 8:30 AM) is the week’s anchor — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge after the April 28–29 FOMC minutes revealed the internal debate. Core PCE prior was +0.3% MoM / +3.2% YoY, and any tick higher locks in a hawkish bias into the June 16–17 FOMC meeting. The same release delivers Q1 GDP second estimate (cons. +2.0% QoQ), April durable goods (cons. +3.3%), and personal income/spending — a single 8:30 print that condenses growth, inflation, and consumer momentum.
Central banks dominate the calendar: RBNZ Tuesday overnight (cons. hold 2.25%), Bank of Korea Wednesday overnight (prior 2.50%), and South Africa SARB Thursday (cons. hike to 7.00% vs. 6.75%) — the only G20 central bank likely tightening this week. The ECB releases the Account of its April 30 meeting (Thursday 7:30 AM), and Lagarde speaks twice on Thursday ahead of the June 4 ECB decision. The BoC delivers its Financial System Review (Thursday 10:00 AM) with Macklem press conference before the June 3 rate call.
For LATAM, Brazil delivers Q1 GDP (Friday 7:00 AM, prior +0.10% QoQ / +1.8% YoY) — the most important BCB input ahead of Copom June 17–18 — alongside mid-month IPCA-15 (Wednesday, prior +0.89% MoM / +4.37% YoY) and the unemployment rate. Mexico’s trade balance (Monday) and Q1 current account (Monday 11:00 AM) follow Friday’s GDP contraction print. Eurozone flash CPIs from Spain, France, Italy, and Germany on Friday set up the June 4 ECB decision. Japan Tokyo CPI (Thursday overnight), Australia monthly CPI (Tuesday overnight), and German Q1 unemployment round out the picture. US closed Monday (Memorial Day). UK closed Monday (Spring Bank Holiday).
