Rio Times Markets · The Week Ahead
Week Overview
The week belongs to central banks. Six of them announce rate decisions across five days, and the entire calendar revolves around Wednesday afternoon. At 2:00 PM New York time, the Federal Reserve delivers its decision and the updated quarterly projections that show where each committee member sees interest rates by year-end. Three and a half hours later, Brazil’s Copom announces its own decision.RTAsk Rio TimesAsk about Latin American markets, currencies, and companies — answered from our reporting and live data.Start asking →The Fed is widely expected to hold its policy rate at 3.75%, so the story sits inside the projections. Last week’s US inflation report at 4.2% was the hottest reading in nearly three years, and several committee members will likely shift their year-end forecasts higher. The Bank of Japan opens the week Monday evening (New York time) with its own decision; markets expect a quarter-point hike to 1.00%, the highest Japanese policy rate since 2008.
For Latin America, the Copom announcement is the most consequential rate call of the year. The Selic sits at 14.50%, and analysts are split: XP, Itaú and Goldman expect a quarter-point cut to 14.25%, while Santander calls for a pause. Inflation expectations in the central bank’s weekly Focus survey have climbed for ten consecutive weeks — the longest run of upward revisions since Brazil’s inflation-targeting era began.
