Rio Times Markets · The Week Ahead
Week Overview
US May nonfarm payrolls on Friday close a labor-market gauntlet that begins with ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday, JOLTS on Tuesday, and the ADP–ISM Services double-header on Wednesday. After last week’s sticky 3.3% Core PCE, this is the dataset that decides whether June 16–17 FOMC stays on hold or starts pricing a hike.
Eurozone flash CPI for May on Tuesday and the April unemployment rate frame the June 11 ECB decision — Lagarde and the Governing Council enter blackout midweek with German prices cooling and Spanish prices reaccelerating. Together with the final HCOB PMIs, the eurozone gets the cleanest brief of the cycle before Frankfurt.
For Latin America, Brazil enters the IPCA quiet ahead of the May print on June 12 — but Friday’s Q1 GDP at +1.1% QoQ and +1.8% YoY beat consensus, confirming the economy is digesting a 14.50% Selic without rolling over. Industrial production Wednesday, the May trade balance, and the BCB Focus survey shape positioning into the June 17 Copom.
