Rio Times Markets · The Week Ahead
Week Overview
The American labour-market verdict arrives a day early. Because Independence Day falls on a Saturday this year, US markets close on Friday July 3 and the June payrolls report releases Thursday at 8:30 AM. Consensus is 114,000 jobs, down sharply from May’s 172,000, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.3% and average hourly earnings at +0.3% month-over-month. A reading near consensus would put the three-month average around 145,000 — the slowest stretch of American hiring since the pandemic recovery cooled.
Wednesday morning brings the eurozone’s first inflation reading since the ECB hiked on June 11. Flash CPI for June is expected to cool to 3.0% year-over-year from 3.2%, with core unchanged at 2.6%. The Tuesday cascade of German state inflation releases — Baden-Württemberg, Bavaria, Hesse, North Rhine-Westphalia, Saxony — feeds into the German national flash at 8:00 AM ET; consensus has Germany at 2.5% from 2.6%.
For Latin America, Colombia’s Banco de la República holds at 11.25% on Tuesday afternoon. That keeps Colombia’s real policy rate near 6.45% (the policy rate minus around 4.8% inflation), still the second-highest in the region behind Brazil’s roughly 9.85% — but only by about 340 basis points. The narrowing gap is one reason capital has been less one-directional toward Brazilian assets than a year ago. Brazil’s month-end fiscal release Tuesday is the other story for the real.
