OPEC’s crude oil production cratered to 16.33 million barrels per day in May 2026, according to a Bloomberg survey. That’s the lowest output the cartel has recorded in over three decades, and it represents a month-over-month decline of 1.22 million barrels per day.
The culprit is a familiar one, just turned up to eleven: US sanctions on Iran, now reinforced by an active naval blockade that has choked off Iranian crude exports to a trickle. Iranian production fell to 2.34 million barrels per day, a drop of 710,000 barrels per day and a five-year low for the country. Iranian crude and condensate exports slipped below 300,000 barrels per day, the lowest figure in at least six years.
How OPEC lost a third of its output
Since the Iran conflict began escalating in early 2026, the group’s total output has shrunk by roughly 9.7 million barrels per day across multiple Gulf producers, representing a decline of more than 30%.
The US-Israel conflict with Iran has been the primary accelerant. The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately one-third of the world’s seaborne oil trade passes, has become a focal point of regional tensions.
