AdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENTAfter this week’s Iowa primary, the field is pretty much set in the six states that Democrats are mainly targeting to retake the Senate this November.It won’t be easy. Democrats must hold their seats and win at least four Republican-held ones — including at least two in states that President Trump won easily in 2024. Those are seats Republicans should be able to defend, even in a challenging year.But in most of the key states, there’s a good reason Democrats have a shot at winning, too — whether it’s the state’s partisanship, the strength of the Democratic candidate or the weakness of their opponent.At this early stage, North Carolina stands out as the best opportunity for Democrats, and Iowa seems to be the likeliest Republican hold. In between, Maine, Texas, Alaska and Ohio all feature a mix of challenges and opportunities for both sides. Among them, it’s hard to figure where Democrats or Republicans are likeliest to prevail.Here are the six battleground states, with some measures of the state of play: the baseline political environment in the state, the candidates’ track record of past performance, and the recent polls. (More details on those metrics below.)
What Are Democrats’ Best Senate Pickup Opportunities?
We’ve grouped six battleground states by some of the factors that shape how likely it is for the party to flip each Senate seat.
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