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Or sign-in if you have an account.The United States, Mexico and Canada are set to blow past a July 1 milestone to renew their trade deal. Photo by LARS HAGBERG/AFP/Getty Images filesThe United States, Mexico and Canada are set to blow past a July 1 milestone to renew their trade deal, opening the possibility of months or years of haggling over the rules and tariffs for auto manufacturing and other industries, people familiar with the matter said.Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman, and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one account.Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments.Enjoy additional articles per month.Get email updates from your favourite authors.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one accountShare your thoughts and join the conversation in the commentsEnjoy additional articles per monthGet email updates from your favourite authorsSign In or Create an AccountorThe agreement, signed by U.S. President Donald Trump during his first term, includes a deadline next month to extend the pact for 16 years. If all three countries don’t agree to renew it, the deal remains in place until at least 2036 — barring one of them quitting it entirely — and enters rolling annual reviews.Officials close to the process now say that’s the most likely scenario. By declining to formally renew, the Trump administration will trigger negotiations and an indefinite period of uncertainty about the future of the agreement, the people said, speaking on condition they not be identified to discuss private talks.Get the latest headlines, breaking news and columns.By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.The next issue of Top Stories will soon be in your inbox.We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try againIn the meantime, against the backdrop of the review, the U.S. has started separate bilateral talks with Canada and Mexico over trade irritants. Some of those issues are only loosely related to the pact known as the Canada-United-States-Mexico-Agreement. Side deals may be struck to address them without changes to the CUSMA’s underlying text.The economic stakes are huge for all three countries in CUSMA, which was called NAFTA before Trump renegotiated and rebranded it. They do almost US$2 trillion in annual trade with each other, and CUSMA-compliant goods have largely been exempt from Trump’s barrage of tariffs, including in the new duties revealed this week.Canada and Mexico are two of the largest U.S. trading partners and the top buyers of its goods. But they’ve still been faced with new tariffs on products such as autos and steel — straining ties and spurring boycotts.U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has said the U.S. wouldn’t rubber-stamp an extension of the agreement. The U.S. and Mexico have already scheduled their third round of talks for mid-July, while the U.S. has had less formal discussions with Canada.Dominic LeBlanc, the Canadian minister responsible for U.S. trade, met with Greer this week in Washington and afterward suggested July 1 shouldn’t be seen as a crucial date. “I think we’ve got to be careful not to set up a cliff that doesn’t exist,” he said.The office of the USTR declined to comment and instead referred to recent remarks by Greer, who told France 24 that on July 1, “I don’t think we’re going to renew it outright, but we’ll engage in the separate negotiations.”One of Trump’s goals is to pull more automotive assembly and other manufacturing jobs into the U.S., and he sees tariffs and trade rules as ways to do it. The White House is pushing for a new standard on new vehicles of at least 50 per cent U.S. content to qualify for tariff-free treatment — a condition Trump unsuccessfully sought in the renegotiation during his first term.Familiar irritants have also popped up again, such as Canada’s dairy management system that restricts imports. And defense programs are also a source of tension, such as whether Canada will follow through on an order of F-35 fighter jets.It’s not clear how far the White House can go in changing the terms without altering the legal text of the CUSMA, which could require a politically unpalatable vote in Congress.Greer has signaled the administration wants changes without going to Congress, some of the people said, preferring instead to squeeze Canada and Mexico for concessions that would be spelled out in side letters or “protocols.”Canada’s chief trade negotiator, Janice Charette, has described them as focused on a “kind of snap-on Lego bilateral piece” added to the original deal.Senior officials in Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government are pushing to get an agreement to address the steep tariffs Trump imposed on steel, aluminum, autos and lumber.Carney annoyed Trump with a speech in Davos that accused the world’s superpowers of coercive tactics, but he has taken a more conciliatory approach recently. He used an event in New York to publicly pitch the U.S. on closer cooperation on critical minerals such as potash and uranium. Trump is also keen on a modified version of the Keystone XL oil pipeline from Canada.This week, Carney’s government backed off a plan to force major streaming companies such as Netflix Inc. and Walt Disney Co. to spend 15 per cent of their annual Canadian revenue on local content. The U.S. ambassador in Ottawa praised that decision.But Canadian officials are nevertheless bracing for a scenario in which tariff negotiations drag on for years, perhaps all the way through the end of Trump’s term in 2029.As talks intensify, they believe the president may do more of what he’s done since January 2025 — hitting Canada with new tariffs or denouncing its government in social media posts — and may even threaten to pull the U.S. out of the trade deal to add pressure and force concessions. After his meeting with Greer, LeBlanc sounded an optimistic tone but warned of “turbulence” ahead.Talks with Mexico have focused heavily on the auto sector. Like Canada, Mexico’s economy is suffering due to uncertainty over tariffs. Latin America’s second-largest economy has now seen 19 straight months of negative total investment.When asked for comment, the Mexican government referred to a letter released by Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard in which he states the priority for CUSMA should be keeping it as a three-way agreement.It’s an open question whether Trump would agree to renew the agreement at all, or whether his administration will simply elect to keep it in constant reviews — which would make it harder for its smaller partners to win investment. If the White House doesn’t commit to renewal, Canada or Mexico may balk at making concessions.Trump can always give six months’ notice to quit the deal altogether, something he’s privately flirted with but not publicly threatened of late.Instead, the talks with Mexico and Canada appear headed toward side deals with each country, similar to the agreements Trump has struck with other nations to trade tariff relief for certain concessions.—With assistance from Gonzalo Soto. Join the Conversation This website uses cookies to personalize your content (including ads), and allows us to analyze our traffic. Read more about cookies here. By continuing to use our site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.