Harvard Business Review LogoJune 5, 2026Alita/Getty ImagesDigitalization has reshaped the global economy for 25 years, but emerging forces—from U.S.–China tech rivalry and geopolitics to AI’s uneven impacts—are fragmenting whatDigitalization has been a defining force of the past 25 years. As leaders set a course for what’s ahead, urgent questions loom: How might the U.S.-China technology rivalry reshape markets? Are digital accessibility gaps a perpetual drag on demand or a growth opportunity? Will the unprecedented investments in AI and mega-IPOs of frontier AI labs pay off or lead to a bust? Will the AI boom widen inequality and concentrate power or lower catch-up cost for challengers? The bets placed now will shape where the next generation of digital value is created and captured and how companies engage globally.
What a Fragmenting Digital Economy Means for Global Competition
Digitalization has reshaped the global economy for 25 years, but emerging forces—from U.S.–China tech rivalry and geopolitics to AI’s uneven impacts—are fragmenting what was once a more unified digital landscape. The 2026 Digital Evolution Index reveals that digital progress is now shaped as much by power competition, regulation, and computing capacity as by markets and technology. As a result, business leaders must rethink where and how digital value will be created, building strategic optionality to navigate divergent digital trajectories, rapid technological leaps, and declining global trust.
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