The WTO’s barometer index, currently at 101.7, remains above its baseline value of 100, indicating that trade volumes are still running above trend
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Global trade in goods showed resilience in early 2026 as a rise in demand for artificial intelligence-related electronic components helped to partly offset the blow from West Asia conflict disruptions, a WTO report said.However, merchandise trade growth may be starting to lose momentum, it cautioned.The WTO’s barometer index, currently at 101.7, remains above its baseline value of 100, indicating that trade volumes are still running above trend, according to the latest WTO Goods Trade Barometer readings shared on Friday.However, the reading is down slightly from 102.3 in January, suggesting that merchandise trade growth may be starting to lose momentum, it highlighted.“The negative impact of the Middle East conflict may have been partly offset by surging demand for electronic components related to AI investment,” the report noted.Indexes that are above trend include electronics components (105.5), air freight (102.2), container shipping (102.4) and export orders (100.5), signalling expansion, although at a slower rate than earlier.On the flip side, the agricultural raw materials index (98.9) and automotive products index (99.8) are both below trend. leading indicatorThe WTO’s Goods Trade Barometer is a composite leading indicator that tracks whether world merchandise trade is running above or below its recent trend, with readings above 100 signalling above-trend volumes and below 100 indicating the reverse.“On balance, the indices show signs of resilience, signalling relatively stable global merchandise trade growth,” the report noted.The WTO’s global trade outlook report on March 19 projected merchandise trade growth of 1.9 per cent in 2026 under its baseline scenario, falling to 1.4 per cent if Middle East/West Asia conflict drives energy prices higher, while sustained AI investment could add 0.5 percentage points to either figure. The WTO’s next trade forecast is due in October 2026Published on June 5, 2026
