The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has kept its outlook for Bulgaria’s economic growth in 2026 unchanged while slightly revising down its forecast for 2027, according to its latest regional economic report.
For 2026, the bank continues to project Bulgarian GDP growth at 2.7%, in line with its February assessment. For 2027, however, the forecast has been lowered to 2.5%, down 0.1 percentage points compared with the earlier estimate of 2.6%.
The EBRD said Bulgaria’s economy expanded by 3.1% in 2025, driven mainly by strong domestic consumption. This growth came despite weaker energy exports and ongoing contraction in manufacturing. Key contributing factors included a 12% increase in nominal wages, unemployment falling to 3.5%, and a 21% rise in household lending.
At the same time, macroeconomic imbalances widened. The current account deficit reached nearly 3% of GDP in 2025, while inflation measured by HICP averaged 3.5%. The budget deficit rose to around 3.5% of GDP, largely due to higher spending on pensions, social benefits, and defense, pushing public debt up by 6 percentage points to 30% of GDP.
Looking ahead, the EBRD expects Bulgaria’s growth to be supported by investments linked to the Recovery and Resilience Plan, as well as improved investor sentiment following eurozone entry and the formation of a new government. The institution said these developments could strengthen policy clarity and reform momentum.
