The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has revised its outlook for Bulgaria, lowering expectations for economic growth in the coming years while warning of persistent inflationary pressure driven by energy costs and rising public spending.
In its latest Economic Outlook published on June 3, the OECD projects Bulgaria’s GDP growth to slow to 2.5 percent in 2026 and further to 2.3 percent in 2027. The revised forecast reflects weaker domestic demand, higher energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and a gradual easing of consumption growth.
The updated projection for 2026 is slightly below the OECD’s previous estimate of 2.6 percent, but still above its earlier 2025 outlook of 2.3 percent. The report also notes that investment activity is expected to be supported primarily by public spending financed through EU funds, while private investment is likely to recover only gradually as uncertainty declines.
According to the OECD, inflationary pressures remain a key concern. Higher energy prices are expected to keep inflation elevated at 4.3 percent in 2026 before easing to 3.4 percent in 2027. The organization warns that sustained energy price increases could prolong inflation persistence and continue to reduce real household incomes.
