Allianz Trade has raised its inflation outlook for Bulgaria in 2026, revising the expected average rate from 3.7% to 3.9%. The adjustment comes as the country recorded the highest price increase in the region in April, with analysts pointing to stronger-than-expected pressures in energy-related sectors.
According to the international team of experts, the main drivers of recent inflation are shocks in fuel and transport costs, linked to higher global energy prices. Additional upward pressure is also coming from services such as restaurants, hotels, and entertainment, alongside rising food prices. Analysts note that some of this momentum has been reinforced by residual effects following Bulgaria’s entry into the eurozone.
The report states, “We expect average inflation of 3.9 percent in 2026. This is below the European Commission’s forecast of 4.2 percent and significantly below the increased values reported in the spring. This forecast is consistent with our view that this is largely a temporary spike caused by energy prices.”
Experts add that the peak in inflation is expected around mid-year, with a gradual easing in the second half as base effects in fuel prices fade. However, they stress that several variables remain uncertain, particularly whether higher fuel costs will spill over into broader price growth through transport, food production, and inflation expectations. Wage growth is also identified as a possible source of secondary inflationary pressure.
