The Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (BAS) has presented three macroeconomic scenarios for Bulgaria’s economic development through 2028 in its annual report prepared by the Institute for Economic Research. The document, titled “Economic Development and Policies in Bulgaria: Assessments and Expectations,” evaluates recent trends and provides medium-term projections for growth, inflation, fiscal stability, and external balance.
According to the report, Bulgaria enters 2026 with relatively strong domestic demand, an expanding investment cycle, and an active credit market. However, these positive internal dynamics are accompanied by a weakening external position, which increases overall economic vulnerability. The analysis covers global and domestic developments and assesses how different external and policy conditions could shape outcomes through the end of the decade.
The economists outline three scenarios, each reflecting different combinations of external shocks, financial conditions, and fiscal policy settings. The baseline scenario is described as moderately favorable but marked by elevated uncertainty in the external environment. Under this projection, GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.6 percent in 2026, before rising to 2.5 percent in 2027 and reaching 3.5 percent in 2028.
