Market Snapshot
The market for Israel striking four countries in 2026 currently shows a 36% probability for a YES outcome. This is a decrease from 44% 24 hours ago and 47% a week ago. Meanwhile, the market for an Israel-Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026, stands at 6% for a YES outcome.
Key Takeaways
Netanyahu’s statements appear to increase the perceived likelihood of military action by Israel, consistent with a rise in YES outcomes for potential strikes.
The aggressive rhetoric suggests a decreased likelihood of a permanent peace deal between Israel and Iran, suggesting market movement away from YES outcomes for peace resolutions.
