El Niño warning: Scientists say a major climate threat is approaching — and Southern Africa could feel it first

General view of lagoons in "Pan de Azucar" Natural Park at the Paramo el Consuelo in Belen, Boyaca Department, Colombia.

A rapidly developing El Niño fueled by unusually warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific is prompting urgent calls for global and regional preparedness.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has announced an 80% likelihood of an El Niño event occurring between June and August 2026, with probabilities of it persisting until at least November reaching 90%.

What's even more alarming is that the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) projects an even higher likelihood, assigning a 98% probability of El Niño conditions developing during the May–July 2026 period.

Why should you care? These shifting weather patterns are expected to severely influence global temperature and rainfall, increasing the risk of extreme weather events.