The Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS) and the National Environment Agency (NEA) said in a joint statement on May 29, reported by The Straits Times, that there is more than an 80% chance of El Nino conditions emerging between June and July.
El Nino is a recurring climate pattern marked by abnormal warming of surface waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific, and the agencies said it tends to have its strongest effect on Singapore's rainfall during the southwest monsoon season from June to September, when the city typically sees less rain. It also tends to drive temperatures higher.
The Singapore forecast aligns with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, whose Climate Prediction Center raised its alert to an El Nino Watch on May 14 and put the odds of the pattern emerging by July at 82%, with a 96% chance it persists through the 2026-27 Northern Hemisphere winter. The center sees a roughly 65% chance the event reaches strong intensity by October.
The El Nino is expected to begin at moderate strength but could intensify between August and September, MSS and NEA said. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which occurs when sea surface temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean turn cooler, could develop between July and August, suppressing cloud formation and pushing drier weather over the region. Together, the agencies said, the two phenomena will bring warmer, drier conditions to Singapore and its surroundings through October and "increase the risk of transboundary haze affecting Singapore and the region."
