US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has proposed a phased ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, with the opening move requiring Hezbollah to halt all attacks on Israel. In return, Israel would pull back from escalation in Beirut.
Rubio spoke directly with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about the diplomatic framework, according to a US official. The proposal lands amid a year that has already seen multiple ceasefire extensions, including a 45-day extension announced around mid-May.
When earlier ceasefire discussions gained traction in April, Bitcoin rallied to approximately $74,650. Each extension buys time, but it also creates a kind of geopolitical whiplash for traders trying to position around binary outcomes.
Prediction markets are doing the heavy lifting on sentiment
Polymarket, the blockchain-based prediction platform, has become a real-time barometer for ceasefire sentiment. Contracts tied to ceasefire extensions saw sharp repricing following the latest news cycle, with traders rapidly adjusting their bets on whether de-escalation would hold.
