Even as India grapples with energy disruptions linked to the West Asia crisis, fresh challenges appear to be emerging for the economy. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday reaffirmed its projection of ‘below normal’ monsoon rainfall for the year, while further lowering its earlier estimates for the June–September season.According to IMD, rainfall during the monsoon season is expected to be around 90% of the long period average (LPA), a downward revision from the 92% forecast issued in April. The department also indicated a 60% likelihood of ‘deficient’ rainfall (less than 90% of LPA), which is typically considered a drought year.Such a scenario could have widespread consequences, not only affecting agricultural output but also impacting water reservoirs, groundwater recharge, and hydro-power generation, potentially triggering multiple levels of crisis.El Niño Impact Behind Weak MonsoonIMD attributed the downgrade in monsoon expectations to the probable development of strong El Niño conditions. This climatic phenomenon, marked by warming ocean waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is often associated with weaker monsoons and more intense summers in India.Heatwave Warning for JuneThe weather agency has also forecast a particularly hot June, predicting 'above normal' heatwave days across several regions. States likely to experience higher heatwave intensity include Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, and parts of Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu.However, Rajasthan and Jharkhand are expected to see 'below normal' heatwave days during the month.Impact on Agriculture and Rural EconomyThe potential risks to India’s farm sector may worsen due to the ongoing West Asia crisis, which has already affected the supply and pricing of key agricultural inputs such as diesel and fertilisers. This combination of climatic and geopolitical pressures could strain the rural economy and, in turn, have broader implications for India’s overall economic outlook in the current financial year.[With TOI inputs]
El Niño effect: Why India may see weak monsoon and harsher summer
India faces a double blow as the IMD forecasts below-normal monsoon rainfall, with a 60% chance of deficient rains due to El Niño. This, coupled with the West Asia crisis impacting agricultural inputs, threatens the farm sector and the rural economy, potentially leading to broader economic challenges.
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