India is likely to see below-average monsoon rains in 2026, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday (April 13, 2026), raising concerns over farm output and growth in the country as it released its long-range forecast for the southwest monsoon season, which spans from June to September.
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“Monsoon rainfall from June to September will be ‘below normal’ and is likely to be 92% of the Long Period Average,” Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES)Secretary M. Ravichandran said at a press briefing on Monday (April 13, 2026).
El Nino fears
El Nino conditions are likely after June, the IMD informed. An El Nino is defined as the Central Equatorial Pacific heating, on average, at least half a degree warmer than the average for five consecutive overlapping three-month periods. Historically, six out of ten El Nino years have been linked to depressed rainfall over India. The El Nino is the converse of La Nina — a half-degree cooling — and the two are cyclical phenomena. The last global El Nino occurred during 2023-24, a year that saw rainfall below normal levels in India.
