Risks of food, inflation mount for Southeast Asia

A worker transfers rice plant mats into a truck in Selangor state, Malaysia, on April 1. Conflict in the Middle East has driven up energy prices, a ripple effect that makes groceries and goods more expensive. FAZRY ISMAIL/EPA

Southeast Asia faces mounting food and inflation risks as a probable super El Nino weather phenomenon threatens harvests, compounding the fallout from the Middle East crisis, which has already driven up farm input and transport costs.

Climate extremes that threaten staple crops and geopolitical turmoil that inflates fuel and fertilizer costs have exposed Southeast Asia's vulnerability to overlapping crises, analysts said.

Extremely dry weather is "another shock" for the member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, according to Khor Yu Leng, director of Segi Enam Advisors in Singapore.

Super, or very severe, El Nino is "fundamentally a food inflation story" as prolonged drought and erratic rainfall can reduce food supplies and boost prices, Khor said.