Bettors on Polymarket are putting their money where their pessimism is. The prediction market currently prices the chance of a federal AI safety bill becoming law before the end of 2027 at just 13%, with “Yes” shares trading at 13 cents.
The market has attracted roughly $99,000 in trading volume since launching on November 12, 2025.
A pattern of legislative inaction
This isn’t the first time Polymarket has hosted this bet. A previous version of the market, focused on whether an AI safety bill would pass in 2025, resolved with a definitive “No.” Shares in that market were trading below 1% before it closed on May 20, 2025.
States aren’t waiting around
