This market will resolve to “Yes” if a bill erecting a qualifying moratorium that prohibits or suspends approvals for new AI data center construction or major expansions anywhere in the United States is passed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying moratorium go into effect against the construction of any facility described in the legal text as an AI data center, AI compute facility, AI training/inference data center, or similar. Any moratorium that applies to all “data centers” will also qualify.
The signing of such a bill will qualify regardless of the date such a moratorium actually comes into effect, or whether an injunction is put into place against qualifying legislation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Growing backlash over AI data centers' massive energy demands and grid strain has propelled the 85.9% implied probability for a moratorium passing before 2027. The primary catalyst is the March 2026 introduction of the Sanders-Ocasio-Cortez Artificial Intelligence Data Center Moratorium Act, which would halt large-scale projects nationwide until safeguards are enacted, building on more than 69 active local and state-level pauses already in place. Recent state efforts, including Maine's passed-but-vetoed bill and proposals in New York and elsewhere, underscore mounting community and environmental pushback. Upcoming legislative sessions and regulatory reviews could sustain momentum, though congressional hurdles remain key swing factors in this closely watched policy market.This market will resolve to “Yes” if a bill erecting a qualifying moratorium that prohibits or suspends approvals for new AI data center construction or major expansions anywhere in the United States is passed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".A qualifying moratorium go into effect against the construction of any facility described in the legal text as an AI data center, AI compute facility, AI training/inference data center, or similar. Any moratorium that applies to all “data centers” will also qualify.The signing of such a bill will qualify regardless of the date such a moratorium actually comes into effect, or whether an injunction is put into place against qualifying legislation. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Market Opened: Dec 17, 2025, 6:22 PM ETVolume$55,993End DateDec 31, 2026Market OpenedDec 17, 2025, 6:22 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if a bill erecting a qualifying moratorium that prohibits or suspends approvals for new AI data center construction or major expansions anywhere in the United States is passed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
