Simon Johnson & Amir Kermani sketch four scenarios for the Persian Gulf—none of which bode well for global economic stability.
en English
May 29, 2026
Simon Johnson
and Amir Kermani
Donald Trump has three primary objectives in the Persian Gulf: unwind the Iranian nuclear program, permanently reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and not be the president blamed for having “lost” Taiwan to China. The bad news for the US president is that he can achieve at most two of these goals.
Global leaders are meeting to discuss the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump expects it to reopen soon. However,…
Despite optimistic statements from US officials, negotiations between Washington and Tehran remain fragile amid deep mistrust and…
Drawing comparisons with UK’s watershed ‘Suez moment’ in 1950s, report says US now ‘wedged’ in strait and searching for a way out.
The deeper issue is whether post-war reconstruction and security in the Gulf will be handled through negotiation or recurring…
Trump announces the Strait of Hormuz will fully reopen by Friday under a US-Iran deal. Oil prices drop, and crypto markets could…
Central banks and many governments continue to base forecasts on a near-term resolution in Iran that sees the Strait of Hormuz…
