The S&P 500 eked out another record close on Wednesday as easing oil prices offset weakness in parts of the semiconductor trade, but Polymarket traders are leaning slightly bearish ahead of a crucial inflation reading due Thursday.
The S&P 500 rose 0.02% to close at a fresh record of 7,520.36. The May 28 Polymarket contract implied a 55% probability that the benchmark index would open lower on Thursday, compared with a 45% chance of an upward open.
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Why That Number Matters
Investors are closely watching April's personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, for clues on the path of interest rates under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
