The S&P 500 slipped on Tuesday as investors rotated out of artificial intelligence-linked stocks and geopolitical tensions flared again in the Middle East. Polymarket traders are now overwhelmingly betting the benchmark index will open lower on Wednesday.
The S&P 500 fell 0.45% to close at 7,503.85. The July 8 Polymarket contract implied just a 12% probability that the index would open higher on Wednesday, reflecting a sharp deterioration in sentiment as traders increasingly positioned for another weak start. The chances dropped drastically after being over 50% earlier.
Why That Number Matters
Markets are juggling two major risks heading into Wednesday’s session: renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s policy path.
Investors will scrutinize minutes from the Fed’s June meeting for more detail on Chairman Kevin Warsh‘s first policy meeting after officials left interest rates unchanged but signaled additional rate hikes could be warranted if inflation remains persistent.
