The S&P 500 slipped on the first trading day of the second half of 2026 as investors continued rotating out of semiconductor stocks, while Polymarket traders remain evenly divided over Thursday’s opening direction.
The S&P 500 fell 0.22% to close at 7,483.23 on Wednesday. The July 2 Polymarket contract now implies a 47% probability that the benchmark index will open higher on Thursday, after volatile trading that saw the odds swing sharply before recovering toward even odds.
Why That Number Matters
Markets enter Thursday awaiting the June nonfarm payrolls report, one of the most closely watched economic releases for clues on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect the U.S. economy to have added 115,000 jobs last month.
Wednesday also marked the first full trading day of the second half of 2026, following a first half in which the S&P 500 gained 9.6% and advanced 14.9% during the second quarter, its strongest quarterly performance since the second quarter of 2020.
