The S&P 500 rallied on Tuesday as strong corporate earnings and a rebound in semiconductor stocks lifted equities. However, Polymarket traders are betting the benchmark index will open lower on Wednesday as rising oil prices and renewed inflation concerns cloud the outlook.
The S&P 500 gained 0.89% to close at 7,509.20. However, the July 22 Polymarket contract implied just a 15% probability that the index will open higher on Wednesday, with traders increasingly positioning for a weaker start.
Why That Number Matters
Markets are entering one of the busiest stretches of earnings season, with Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG), Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), IBM (NYSE:IBM), Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN), and AT&T (NYSE:T) all set to report Wednesday.
Investors are looking for evidence that spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure remains strong enough to justify elevated technology valuations, particularly after semiconductor stocks bounced sharply on Tuesday.
