Skip to Content News Archives Economy Energy Oil & Gas Renewables Electric Vehicles Mining Commodities Agriculture Real Estate Mortgages Mortgage Rates Finance Banking Insurance Fintech Cryptocurrency Work Wealth Smart Money Wealth Management Investor Personal Finance Family Finance Retirement Taxes High Net Worth FP Comment Executive Women Puzzmo Newsletters Financial Times Business Essentials More Innovation Information Technology FP500 Podcasts Small Business Lives Told Tails Told Shopping Financial Post Store Obituaries Place a Notice Advertising Advertising With Us Advertising Solutions Postmedia Ad Manager Sponsorship Requests Classifieds Place a Classifieds ad Working Profile Settings My Subscriptions Saved Articles My Offers Newsletters Customer Service FAQ News Economy Energy Mining Real Estate Finance Work Wealth Investor FP Comment Executive Women Puzzmo Newsletters Financial Times Business Essentials HomeFP CommentBjorn Lomborg: Al Gore’s inaccurate untruths distorted policyClimate alarmism raised awareness but it skewed policy toward expansive emissions reductions rather than research into cheap clean energyLast updated 1 hour ago You can save this article by registering for free here. Or sign-in if you have an account.Two decades on, the main lesson of An Inconvenient Truth is that panic is a terrible policy adviser. Photo by Handout/Paramount Skydance CorpTwo decades ago, Al Gore’s movie “An Inconvenient Truth” thrust climate change into the global spotlight. Its dramatic imagery and dire warnings helped transform a niche concern into a front-page crisis, influencing rich-country leaders and elite jet-setters, and inspiring a generation of activists.Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman, and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one account.Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments.Enjoy additional articles per month.Get email updates from your favourite authors.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one accountShare your thoughts and join the conversation in the commentsEnjoy additional articles per monthGet email updates from your favourite authorsSign In or Create an AccountorTwenty years on is sufficient distance to reflect, not just on the film’s impact, but also on its accuracy. Many of Gore’s most alarming predictions have failed to materialize, while the policy response he helped inspire has proved extraordinarily flawed.The film’s core narrative was that climate change is driving ever-worsening disasters, such as floods, droughts, storms and wildfires. Yet, over the past century, even as global population quadrupled, deaths from these climate-related disasters have plummeted. In the 1920s, an average of nearly half a million people died from such events every year. Today, that number is under 10,000 — a decline of over 97 per cent. Richer, smarter societies have made us dramatically safer, proving adaptation and resilience work far better than alarmism suggests.Get the latest headlines, breaking news and columns.By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.The next issue of Top Stories will soon be in your inbox.We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try againGore’s film claimed we would see more frequent and stronger hurricanes because of climate change. The movie’s poster showed a hurricane coming out of a smokestack. But in fact global data reveal a slight decline both in hurricanes’ frequency and in their total energy since comprehensive satellite data became available in 1980.Wildfires follow a similar pattern. Globally, the area burned annually has fallen by more than 25 per cent over the past quarter century, according to NASA data. Because of forest mismanagement, recent years have seen large U.S. fires. But the 1930s Dust Bowl was five times worse. On all other continents fires are down.The film famously highlighted polar bears as a symbol of impending ecological collapse, suggesting they were drowning due to melting ice. In reality, polar bear populations have more than doubled — from around 12,000 in the 1960s to over 26,000 today. The primary historical threat was hunting, not climate change, and Gore’s claims have simply turned out to be wrong.The film’s call to action spurred expensive emissions reductions. Yet fossil fuel consumption keeps increasing. Why? Because cheap and reliable power drives growth. As a result, global emissions have set records nearly every year since 2006.The data show we are nowhere near a green transition. In 2006, according to the International Energy Agency, the world got 82.6 per cent of its total energy from fossil fuels. In 2023, the last year for which global data are available, the share was 81.1 per cent. On this trend, it will take over six centuries to get to zero. Yet Gore’s message was that climate solutions were already at hand — if only rich nations would summon the political will to implement them swiftly and decisively.Solar and wind technologies have become dramatically cheaper. But they remain fundamentally intermittent, generating power only when the sun shines or the wind blows. Because modern societies require reliable, 24/7 electricity, using these renewables requires substantial backup systems — typically fossil-fuel plants. People think batteries can play a large role but, with a few rare exceptions battery backup is measured in minutes, not hours. The result is that we end up paying twice: once for renewables and then again for reliable backup. An Inconvenient Truth ignored these inconvenient engineering and economic realities.The global cost of climate policies since 2006 has exceeded US$16 trillion. In the United States alone, the Inflation Reduction Act poured hundreds of billions into green tech. Yet because the rich world’s efforts ignore the reality that developing nations require cheap and reliable energy to reduce poverty, emissions continue to climb.Rich nations account for only 13 per cent of the emissions forecast to take place in the rest of the 21st century. Emerging giants like China, India and Africa drive the rest. Even if all rich countries achieved net-zero by mid-century, that would avoid less than 0.1°C of warming by 2100, using the UN climate panel’s own model.Al Gore’s apocalyptic climate predictions have aged poorly. Climate change is a real problem, but the best evidence suggests warming might shave two to three per cent off global GDP by 2100. Here context matters: the UN estimates that by century’s end, the average person will be 4.5 times richer than today. Climate impacts reduce that to “only” 4.35 times richer. People will still be vastly better off — just slightly less so.The movie’s biggest failing was not making the case for smarter approaches. We need to prioritize innovation. R&D to achieve better batteries, advanced nuclear and fusion could slash costs, making clean energy cheaper than fossil fuels. Adaptation, including sea walls, drought-resistant crops and early warnings, saves lives cheaply. And development lifts billions out of poverty, building resilience.Two decades on, the main lesson of An Inconvenient Truth is that panic is a terrible policy adviser. Focusing on cost-effective solutions — innovation, adaptation and development — will save trillions of dollars and do much more to help both people and the climate.Bjorn Lomborg, president of the Copenhagen Consensus and a visiting fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, is author of “False Alarm” and “Best Things First.” Join the Conversation This website uses cookies to personalize your content (including ads), and allows us to analyze our traffic. Read more about cookies here. 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