Financial social media has once again become obsessed with the familiar inflation chart – the current U.S. inflation trajectory overlaid against the infamous inflation spiral of the 1970s. For inflation doomers, the trend is clear — a second inflation wave is inevitable, and double-digit CPI is only a matter of time.
ING economist James Smith described the trend as a "chart crime," arguing that visual similarities alone are not enough to justify such sweeping conclusions.
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"Historical parallels are neat and often irresistible. But no period is a perfect match," he wrote in the recent analysis.
The comparisons are understandable. Jerome Powell rode into the sunset without bringing inflation to the 2% target, energy prices are rising again amid tensions surrounding Iran, and policymakers continue to wrestle with the aftershocks of the post-COVID economy.
