A US Army Master Sergeant has been indicted for allegedly using classified military information to place bets on Polymarket, reportedly turning roughly $34,000 into more than $400,000. It is the first federal prosecution for insider trading tied to a prediction market, and it is forcing Washington to reckon with a regulatory blind spot that has been hiding in plain sight.
The Department of Justice unsealed the indictment of Gannon Ken Van Dyke on April 23, charging him with leveraging privileged intelligence about the potential ouster of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro to place highly targeted wagers on the blockchain-based platform. The case has since snowballed into a congressional investigation and a broader reckoning for the entire prediction market industry.
The bet that broke the dam
Van Dyke, a Master Sergeant with access to classified military intelligence, placed bets totaling between $33,000 and $34,000 on Polymarket. Those bets were tied to events surrounding the anticipated removal of Maduro in Venezuela. The result: profits exceeding $400,000.
An analysis published in May 2026 by blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps identified nine connected accounts on Polymarket that collectively earned over $2.4 million. Their win rate on military-related bets: 98%.
