American home prices fell for the second consecutive month in March, with more than half of major metropolitan areas posting year-over-year declines. The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller data paints a picture of a housing market that has gone from white-hot to lukewarm in a remarkably short span.
The national home price index recorded a year-over-year increase of just 0.7% in February 2026, down from 0.8% in January. That is the lowest annual gain since mid-2023. And when you adjust for inflation running at approximately 2.4%, the picture gets considerably bleaker.
The real numbers tell a different story
In real terms, accounting for that 2.4% inflation rate, US home values have actually declined for nine consecutive months.
The regional breakdown reveals a market that is splitting into clear winners and losers. Chicago led the pack with a 6.1% year-over-year price increase, followed by New York at 4.0%. These gains comfortably outpaced inflation, meaning homeowners in those cities actually grew wealthier in real terms.
