Clouds are not exactly filling the Kerala coast while a bulk (in dark green) is headed into the east Bay of Bengal where a low-pressure area may form soon and intensify as a storm, according to global models.
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www.meteologix.com/in
Incoming south-west monsoon continues to linger along the Sri Lankan latitudes, still deprived of the sea-borne circulation that would normally propel it northward into Kerala. Such a ‘vortex’ now appears unlikely to form before month-end, delaying the season’s decisive advance into mainland India.No MJO supportNor is there support forthcoming from the upper atmosphere. The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), an eastward-moving tropical pulse that often shepherds monsoon onsets, has already moved out of the Indian Ocean into the western Pacific. Current global projections suggest it may not return until around June 18.Lacks momentumThis roaming equatorial wave of clouds and rainfall, recurring every 30 to 60 days, is closely linked to the birth of tropical storms and strengthening of the monsoon current and its onset under its footprint. Its absence has left the Arabian Sea branch of the monsoon without its usual atmospheric momentum.Classical onsetIndia Meteorological Department (IMD) model guidance now suggests conditions for a classical monsoon onset are unlikely to fall into place before June 5. The delay stems largely from disrupted upper-level winds, influenced by a developing storm system over the east Bay of Bengal, though the IMD has not said it in as many words.Disruptive storm That storm is expected to move towards the Myanmar–Bangladesh coast. Once it clears the region, monsoon flows trailing behind it should gradually settle into a more organised pattern along the Kerala coast .The IMD outlook is broadly echoed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which projects a spell of rain across Kerala, Coastal Karnataka, parts of coastal Tamil Nadu, and the south Andhra Pradesh coast during June 1–8.Headed awayIn the following week, from June 8–15, rainfall is expected to expand northward along the east coast from Andhra Pradesh towards Odisha and West Bengal, likely under the influence of the Bay system, while Tamil Nadu may begin to dry out, according to the ECMWF .Yet the longer-range outlook hints at a familiar monsoon hesitation: from mid-June onward, rains could retreat even from regions that first received the onset spell, including Kerala, signalling a premature weakening of the initial advance.Published on May 26, 2026
