On February 28, Elon Musk posted that it was likely Starship would become fully reusable in 2025. You can see the X post here: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1895598258225106984
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX or Elon Musk announces that Starship is fully reusable by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note, this market refers to the Starship upper stage and does not require reusability for the Super-Heavy booster.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is not necessary that an actual reuse occur, only that SpaceX or Elon Musk announces that Starship is fully reusable by this market's resolution date.
The resolution source for this market is announcements by Elon Musk and SpaceX, or their official representatives.SpaceX’s recent Starship Flight 12 on May 22—the first test of the larger V3 Block 3 vehicles—highlighted incremental progress toward full reusability but also reinforced trader skepticism. While the Super Heavy booster has achieved multiple tower catches and limited reuse, the upper stage continues to face heat-shield damage and engine issues during reentry that prevent rapid, damage-free recovery. With only months left in 2026 and additional V3 flights needed to demonstrate both stages returning intact for quick turnaround, the market-implied 69% probability on “No” reflects the realistic timeline required for iterative testing, regulatory approvals, and operational cadence before end-of-year milestones can be met.On February 28, Elon Musk posted that it was likely Starship would become fully reusable in 2025. You can see the X post here: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1895598258225106984This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX or Elon Musk announces that Starship is fully reusable by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".Note, this market refers to the Starship upper stage and does not require reusability for the Super-Heavy booster.For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is not necessary that an actual reuse occur, only that SpaceX or Elon Musk announces that Starship is fully reusable by this market's resolution date.The resolution source for this market is announcements by Elon Musk and SpaceX, or their official representatives.Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 5:04 PM ETVolume$111,342End DateDec 31, 2026Market OpenedNov 12, 2025, 5:04 PM ETOn February 28, Elon Musk posted that it was likely Starship would become fully reusable in 2025. You can see the X post here: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1895598258225106984
