Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

<5 50%5-6 27%7-8 8.1%>16 5.7%Polymarket$452,169 Vol.$452,169 Vol.Dec 31, 2026<5$90,978 Vol.50%5-6$108,384 Vol.32%7-8$152,613 Vol.8%9-10$56,140 Vol.4%11-12$4,087 Vol.5%13-14$5,037 Vol.5%15-16$25,476 Vol.4%>16$9,453 Vol.6%<5 50%5-6 27%7-8 8.1%>16 5.7%Polymarket$452,169 Vol.$452,169 Vol.Dec 31, 2026<5$90,978 Vol.50%5-6$108,384 Vol.32%7-8$152,613 Vol.8%9-10$56,140 Vol.4%11-12$4,087 Vol.5%13-14$5,037 Vol.5%15-16$25,476 Vol.4%>16$9,453 Vol.6%This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.

The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's debut of the upgraded Starship V3 on its twelfth overall test flight in late May 2026, featuring Raptor 3 engines and a new launch pad, underscores the vehicle's continued maturation amid mixed results including booster anomalies. With only one 2026 launch completed so far and a history of iterative testing punctuated by failures, regulatory reviews, and hardware refinements, traders see limited prospects for rapid cadence increases this year. Key factors include the need for successive FAA launch licenses, successful reusability demonstrations, and resolution of issues like engine reliability before scaling to operational missions. Upcoming test flights and any early operational attempts could shift sentiment, yet the program's emphasis on safety and incremental progress favors fewer than five space-reaching launches through year-end.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Market Opened: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETVolume$452,169End DateDec 31, 2026Market OpenedDec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".