<5 53%5-6 28%7-8 6.5%11-12 4.9%Polymarket$452,109 Vol.$452,109 Vol.Dec 31, 2026<5$90,931 Vol.52%5-6$108,372 Vol.28%7-8$152,613 Vol.7%9-10$56,140 Vol.5%11-12$4,087 Vol.5%13-14$5,037 Vol.5%15-16$25,476 Vol.4%>16$9,453 Vol.4%<5 53%5-6 28%7-8 6.5%11-12 4.9%Polymarket$452,109 Vol.$452,109 Vol.Dec 31, 2026<5$90,931 Vol.52%5-6$108,372 Vol.28%7-8$152,613 Vol.7%9-10$56,140 Vol.5%11-12$4,087 Vol.5%13-14$5,037 Vol.5%15-16$25,476 Vol.4%>16$9,453 Vol.4%This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.

The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Starship’s testing cadence remains constrained by iterative engineering on the new V3 vehicle, FAA licensing timelines, and the need to validate major upgrades such as Raptor 3 engines and an expanded propellant tank before attempting higher flight rates. The successful May 22 debut of Flight 12 from the new Pad 2 marks the first 2026 launch and demonstrates progress on stage separation and payload deployment, yet the overall program has averaged well under one flight per month in prior years. Traders therefore price sub-7 outcomes highest, reflecting realistic expectations around supply-chain scaling, regulatory approvals, and the time required to incorporate data from each test before the next.This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Market Opened: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETVolume$452,109End DateDec 31, 2026Market OpenedDec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".