Super Typhoon Sinlaku at 5:30 p.m. EDT Apr. 12, 2026. At the time, Sinlaku was at peak intensity with 180 mph winds. (Image credit: NOA/RAMMB/Colorado State University)
In their annual seasonal hurricane forecast for the northeast Pacific issued May 21, NOAA predicted an above-average 2026 hurricane season in both the eastern Pacific (for storms affecting Mexico) and the central Pacific (for storms affecting Hawaii). The eastern Pacific outlook calls for a 70% probability of 15-22 named storms, with 9-14 expected to become hurricanes, including 5-9 major hurricanes. Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is predicted to be 120-190% of the median. Using the midpoint of these ranges, NOAA is calling for 18.5 named storms, 11.5 hurricanes, and seven major hurricanes. These numbers are well above the 1991-2020 averages of 15 named storms, eight hurricanes, and four major hurricanes.
The main influence on this season’s outlook is the potentially powerful El Niño event now taking shape. During the five strong El Niño years since 1972, eastern Pacific hurricane activity has been boosted by about four additional named storms, two to three more hurricanes, and one to two more major hurricanes per year (kudos to Jon Erdman of weather.com for those stats).
