The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has issued a stark warning: if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed for any sustained period, the world should brace for an agrifood shock severe enough to push an estimated 45 million additional people into hunger.
That narrow waterway between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula isn’t just an oil chokepoint. It’s also the corridor through which roughly one-third of the world’s basic fertilizers pass.
Fertilizer is the real story
About a third of global basic fertilizer shipments transit through the Strait. Without it, crop yields plummet. With expensive fertilizer, farmers either absorb the cost (unlikely for smallholders in developing nations) or pass it along to consumers.
The FAO’s modeling suggests that a prolonged disruption would generate food price inflation significant enough to tip 45 million more people into hunger.
