The 16 million barrel per day supply shock from the latest Mideast war that started Feb. 28 has so far been mostly offset by huge inventory releases and available oil at sea. While commercial stocks have borne the brunt of those draws, governments have also acted swiftly to tap reserves they control. These so-called strategic petroleum reserves are currently running at a release rate of close to 3 million b/d, according to Energy Intelligence estimates — complementing the 3 million-6 million b/d depletion rate seen across combined OECD and non-OECD commercial stocks. The wide range reflects real-time uncertainty as to how precisely consumers are reacting to higher prices, especially in the non-OECD — which, excluding China, normally consumes 42 million b/d of products, or close to 40% of the world’s total, but offers poor visibility on its inventories.