President Donald Trump’s deportation campaign threw the U.S. childcare system into disarray last year, causing many centers to lose foreign-born employees who were afraid to go to work, according to a new study.A team of researchers from the University of Vermont, Yale University, Arizona State University and American University found that employment in formal childcare centers dropped significantly as immigration arrests ramped up following Trump’s inauguration. At the same time, jobs increased in “less visible” childcare settings, such as in-home nannying, though not enough to offset the decline at centers. The shift makes sense: Childcare is powered disproportionately by immigrant women, and many would not risk getting caught in a mass raid by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Caring for kids in a private home ― and perhaps off the books ― would have offered a relative sense of safety while ICE agents were ripping people from their cars and arresting workers on jobsites. Erdal Tekin, an economist at American University and co-author of the study, said the squeeze on such a critical sector could have huge implications: The availability of quality childcare affects everything from parents’ ability to work to children’s physical and cognitive development. “Childcare is a clear example of how immigration policy can spill over into the lives of American families by pushing workers out of center-based care and creating disruptions that working parents often have to bear,” he said.Trump was elected on a promise to arrest undocumented immigrants and carry out a mass deportation campaign. The number of immigration-related arrests in the nation’s interior surged last year as federal agents were deployed in Los Angeles, Washington, D.C., Minneapolis and other major cities. Around 400,000 people have been detained following inland arrests since the crackdown began, according to Brookings. Anecdotal reports suggested some workers disappeared from childcare centers, not because they were deported but because they didn’t want to risk being snatched. By setting immigration arrests before and after Trump’s inauguration against childcare employment data, Tekin said they found “empirical evidence” that Trump’s crackdown did shape the industry ― particularly in where and how women worked.The study estimates that employment among foreign-born women in childcare centers dropped by nearly 52,900 during the first nine months of 2025, while it increased by 28,400 in in-home care. A U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent is seen in Park Ridge, Illinois, Sept. 19, 2025. Erin Hooley via Associated PressThis “reallocation” can make a difference in the quality of care, Tekin said. Foreign-born women working in childcare centers are more likely to have advanced degrees and industry credentials than those in private residences. They are also better protected by labor regulations, while their employers are more subject to inspections and oversight.“Center-based childcare is mostly regulated and visible and subject to licensing requirements ― and easier for [immigration] enforcement activity to be targeted at,” he said.Childcare in the U.S. is extremely expensive, topping $20,000 per year for a single child in pricier markets. During the 2024 campaign, Trump rambled unintelligibly when asked how he would bring costs down. He has not put forth a comprehensive plan for doing so as president, and recently declared that “the United States can’t take care of day care.”“We’re fighting wars,” he said. “We can’t take care of day care. You gotta let a state take care of day care, and they should pay for it, too.” Although the study did not examine how the deportation campaign has impacted childcare prices, Tekin said it’s unlikely that shrinking the labor pool has made care more affordable. However, the study did look at whether increased enforcement has led to more childcare jobs for native-born workers. While the Trump administration has claimed that removing immigrants would boost wages and opportunities for those born in the U.S., Tekin and his colleagues did not find any evidence that this has happened in childcare. “The childcare sector is a very low-paying sector. It’s one of the highest-turnover industries, and it has a high degree of reliance on immigrants,” Tekin said. “Our results do not show any substantive increase in the numbers of native-born childcare workers.” RelatedDonald TrumpImmigrationchild careice raids