The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has not left anyone, including Greece, unaffected. [Reuters]
It seems that even if the fighting in the Middle East and Ukraine were to stop today, even if we were sure that US-China relations will not get worse, even if Donald Trump stops disrupting global trade and international governance, the world is already very different from what it was a few years ago – a few months ago, even.
First, no one would expect the United Nations to intervene decisively and impose peace on any conflict in which a major power is involved. Also, the damage done to infrastructure in Gulf countries and the closing of the Strait of Hormuz have raised the price of energy and many products, causing political turbulence everywhere.
At the same time, many countries are looking more seriously at alternative sources of energy, as these are not vulnerable to geopolitics. This will greatly affect the Gulf countries, which had wanted to avert the US-Israeli war on Iran. But, now that it is happening, they seek a new security architecture that will not leave them facing a still dangerous Iran. As no one can predict how and when today’s standoff will end, it is very likely that the fallout for the global economy and supply chains, for global relations, and for the domestic politics of many countries will be intense, perhaps even dramatic.
