KYIV—Two ill-conceived external actions over the past few years have fundamentally changed how European nations view their security. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and, more recently, US President Donald Trump’s threats to take Greenland have led many Europeans to two conclusions. First, Russia is the primary threat to Europe’s security. Second, Europeans can no longer count on the United States to defend them.
In response, European states are now urgently strengthening their militaries and incorporating Ukraine into their defenses, accelerating the speed at which US influence on the continent declines.
Europe’s wake-up call
With its initial invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and its full-fledged war on Ukraine since 2022, Russia surprised Europe and dramatically shattered the norms of international relations that had helped prevent great-power war since World War II. Since 2022, the Ukrainians have stopped the Russian invasion and demonstrated their ability—with generous Western help—to defend their country against their aggressive neighbor.
But the Russian threat persists. The Kremlin continues to test NATO defenses by sending drones into Poland and other NATO nations. Ukraine’s military intelligence takes seriously the near-term threat of a Russian attack on a Baltic state. This would test NATO’s commitment and will to defend every inch of every member state.
