A UN study projects that a large share of Ukrainian refugees would remain in Europe in the event of a “fragile peace with concessions” in the war with Russia.
According to research by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), as cited by European Pravda, one modeled scenario assumes that Russia maintains de facto control over occupied territories, while investment levels in Ukrainian government-controlled regions stay moderate to high, and the EU’s Temporary Protection scheme for Ukrainians ends in March 2027.
Under those conditions, the analysis estimates that around 2.9 million people, or 56% of current Ukrainian refugees, would still be living in Europe through at least 2029.
The report outlines alternative trajectories as well. In a scenario where the current situation continues without major change, about 5.16 million refugees, or 99% of the present total, would remain in Europe by the end of 2029.
In contrast, if Ukraine were to regain full control of its internationally recognized territory by the end of this year, the share of refugees remaining in Europe could drop to roughly 32%.
