Ukraine migrant flows after war may prove key to central Europe’s growth prospects, S&P says

WARSAW/BUDAPEST: Ukrainian migrant flows in and out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) after the war could prove key to the region’s growth prospects, S&P Global said in a report, with possible effects on economic output ranging from -6 percent to 3 percent.

Nearly half of Ukrainian refugees currently in the EU live in the 11 CEE countries of the bloc, providing a major boost to their labor markets. The CEE-11 account for less than a quarter of the EU’s total population.

“The direction of economic growth in Central and Eastern Europe could be determined by post-war Ukrainian migration, with the current boost from Ukrainian workers potentially accelerating or reversing,” S&P Global said in its report.

The economic growth impact of refugee flows in the region’s most exposed countries could range from -6 percent to 3 percent, it said.

As of June, the Czech Republic hosted the largest number of Ukrainians relative to its population size, at 3.5 percent, followed by 2.6 percent in Poland, the region’s biggest economy, 2.5 percent in Estonia and 2.4 percent in Slovakia, S&P Global said.