Economics
Jan 8, 2026
Erin Lockwood
The question of which bets on Time’s 2025 Person of the Year should pay out ignited furor on Kalshi and Polymarket, two major prediction markets. By reaching diametrically opposed conclusions, these platforms underscored the indispensable role of human interpretation in settling event contracts, despite claims of automation.
IRVINE – In early December, Time magazine named the “Architects of AI” its 2025 Person of the Year. The lead-up to this announcement has always generated considerable speculation, but this year millions of dollars were riding on it: people placed $55 million in bets on the gambling website Polymarket and $19 million on Kalshi, a rival platform.
