ByJason Wingard,

Senior Contributor.

People are now betting on everything. Prediction markets are amplifying those signals.

The timing of the U.S. government shutdown. The likelihood of Taylor Swift canceling a tour date. The exact day LeBron James might retire. Even the Nobel Peace Prize winner — a market that moved so sharply it triggered a leak investigation. And, increasingly, bettors are wagering on corporate outcomes: whether Meta will surprise-launch its next AI product, if Starbucks is headed for an acquisition bid, or when Amazon will announce another round of mass layoffs.

These bets aren’t happening in Vegas or offshore casinos.