That’s a question currently trading on Kalshi, one of the largest U.S. prediction markets. As of mid-July, traders have wagered nearly $6 million on contracts asking which top Trump administration officials will leave their posts before January 2027.Prediction markets allow users to buy and sell contracts tied to the outcome of future events, ranging from whether it will rain in Las Vegas to the final score of the World Cup championship.
A series of recent insider trading allegations has thrust prediction markets into the spotlight, raising new questions about whether platforms that allow users to bet on real-world events are equipped to prevent the misuse of nonpublic information.Betting on Trump’s words
Just this week, Gabriel Perez, one of President Donald Trump’s teleprompter operators, was discovered to have earned more than $100,000 by wagering on specific words Trump would use in more than a dozen speeches this year, according to ABC News.White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed on Thursday that the aide “will no longer be working at the White House” as investigations continue into whether he improperly used privileged information to place bets on Kalshi.Perez’s actions drew harsh criticism from the president himself, who called them “deeply unfortunate and frankly a disgrace,” Leavitt told reporters.A classified raid turns into a $400,000 payday
